Fearless Forecast: The SAG Awards As The Biggest Predictor For The Upcoming Oscars
With the Oscars fast approaching, it’s time for crystal ball-gazing and making predictions as to who’ll come out on top
No question about it, 2019 was an exceptional quality year for cinema, and so it’s no surprise that we have nine Oscar nominees for Best Picture (the current Academy voting system allows for five to ten in any given year). With the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the SAG all in the record books, only awards shows left before the February 9 Oscars at the time we wrote this are the BAFTA and two of the other guilds.
Before we talk about the Oscars, one extra loud shout out to Parasite and Director Bong Joon-Ho for beating out The Irishman, Bombshell, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, and Jojo Rabbit in the SAG Awards for Best Ensemble Acting in a Motion Picture. This is the first time a foreign language film has won in this category; and if you look at the roster of noted and heavyweight Hollywood names attached to the casts of the other four films, you’ll appreciate how big a feat this was for this South Korean outsider.
When making my predictions for the Oscars, we'll state our pick for winner, and note who we'd personally like to see win and why, when applicable. We'll run through most of the categories, but we have to admit that there are some minor categories we've left out. So here goes:
Best Picture
goes to 1917, but we would love it if it went to Parasite.
Best Actor
and the Oscar goes to Joaquin Phoenix in Joker; but we're quite torn as we're also more impressed by Adam Driver in 'Marriage Story,' and how he finally showed he has range.
Best Actress
Oscar goes to Renee Zellweger in Judy; and the all-important Lady Gaga-lesson here is: You just don’t take on an iconic Judy Garland role (A Star Is Born). If you want to take Oscar home, you have to BE Judy in a film.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and thank you Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for cancelling each other out.
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern for Marriage Story, playing a character almost everyone in Hollywood, and voting in the Academy, would have encountered—a divorce lawyer. We also liked Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Best Animated Feature
Missing Link. Laika for the win. We like Link as it’s not a sequel like Toy Story or How to Train. Hopefully, this is Laika being rewarded for its catalogue of films over the years.
Best Original Score
Hildur Guonadottir for Joker. First female composer to win in this category, so we're crossing our fingers.
Best Director
it’s a toss-up between Sam Mendes for 1917, and Bong Joon-Ho of Parasite. Crazy if Bong wins this, in a year when Tarantino and Scorsese are nominees.
Best Foreign Language Film
Parasite. And no other serious contender.
Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood because Hollywood loves itself, and the film is a crazy love poem to 1969 Tinseltown. (Me, I thought the smarter screenplay was Rian Johnson’s Knives Out, an update of the Agatha Christie parlor room murder mystery genre.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Greta Gerwig for Little Women—and this is Hollywood making up for having shut out Gerwig and other Female Directors from the Best Director category. Personally, I like Anthony McCarten for The Two Popes.
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins and 1917.
Best Original Song
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again Elton John & Bernie Taupin. Again, Hollywood making up for shutting out Rocketman and Taron Egerton. Their misfortune is that there are so many quality films this year, for honestly, Egerton acting AND singing is actually more impressive than Rami Malek last year.
Best Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran for Little Women.
Best Production Design
Lee Ha-Jun Parasite. Loved the house that turns into a set especially designed for the film.
And there it is. Let’s see how many we got right come February 9th (Monday morning, Feb 10, here in Manila).
Photos from Rotten Tomatoes and The Movie Database